30 Years after TCP/IP was born from two criative minds - Vinton G. Cerf and Robert E. Kahn -, Vint forecasts for Gurusonline the Web revolution and talks about the main trends in Computing. Vint has ben widely celebrated for his role in designing with Bob in 1973 the protocols and architecture of the Net we use today so easily. Bill Clinton give them the US National Medal of Technology in 97. Cerf is senior vice president of architecture and technology for MCI and is now working in the most advanced NASA Jet Propulsion Lab Project - the development of an Interplanetary Internet for use in space exploration.

Vint Interviewed by Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues, May 2003
(c) Gurusonline.tv
Jorge is editor of www.gurusonline.tv and executive editor of the Portuguese and Brazilian Management Review
Vint can be contacted by email at vinton.g.cerf@mci.com and you can "enter" his world at the website www.mci.com/cerfsup

What are the main trends going on after the end of the bubble era of the new economy?

Consolidation in the telecommunications industry (service and supply), growth of wireless Internet, general convergence of all services (data, voice, video) on IP substrates, continued interest in IPv6, increased feasibility of "Internet-enabling" of all kinds of devices and appliances.

When do you forecast a massification of network-aware autonomous equipment and a true boom in the digital environment?

Consumer electronics seem likely to drive this - mobile phones, internet-enabled remote controllers for all devices around the house - probably not significant until 2005.

The era of free content in the web is ending? Or we will have always a web fraction of amateurs that put free good stuff?

I think you will always see a fair amount of free information contributed by academics, fans, entrepreneurs seeking to entice customers, packaging of material on which copyrights have expired, indexing services (such as google) that aggregate users...

What forecasts you anticipated in 1973 that didn't come true?

Thought people would pick up email sooner than they did (took 20 years not 10); thought 32 bit address space for IP would be enough but it looks as if that's going to be wrong however we did think we would run out sooner than we have, when we got worried about this around 1992; did not anticipate the effects of laptops in the hands of general public and mobile operation although research work on the latter was one of the motivations for the development of the Internet (mobile packet radio).

The webization gives for companies a compeling business advantage? Or the digital revolution of the 90's is dead?

Continued use of WWW technology and XML will be key elements of corporate efficiency and ability to automate business process transactions between companies. The digital revolution is far from over.

What's the social effect of for instance web instant messaging or web based video conferencing, something ordinary people increasingly have for a few bucks in their desktops, including at home?

The mixing of voice conferencing and instant messaging has changed the character of online conferencing since it allows simultaneous full group and small group (pairs, trios) interactions simultaneously. Individuals may IM one another about the ongoing voice conference, changing the social climate associated with conferencing.

How is the busines processes revolution based in the web plataform in the shop-floor and at ordinary companies?

Still awaiting full design and implementation of various aspects of XML and the Semantic Web concepts.

What is for you the main policy issue about this new digital environment?

Access to and distribution of intellectual property; privacy and confidentiality; reliability of the underlying network and accessbility when needed. Broadband access is another key concern. Dealing with abuse (spam, fraud) has to be dealt with somehow. Extraterritoriality in court decisions are a significant problem as are decisions as to taxing transactions.

Can we assist in the monthes ahead to an Internet second boom? Are we experiencing a revival of interest in online businesses or it's a mere temporary rally in the stock markets from a few speculators?

I think we can anticipate increased demand by industry to implement industry-wide standards for the conduct of Internet-based transactions. Similarly I expect a significant growth in Internet-enabled appliances.

Can you detail the results from the Internet Planetary project?

So far we have devised a new deep-space protocol and end/end protocol system that is more like email than tcp/ip in its character. We are looking forward to the prospect of doing some deep space testing of this capability around 2009 in addition to seeing how the CCSDS link layer works out in practice. Two robots will go to mars in May and June this year, per plan and we hope to learn much from that mission. See also www.ipnsig.org.

© Gurusonline.tv, 2003