The Megatrends futurist

Asia - Number One Next Century

Jorge Nascimento Rodrigues (1996)

The futurist John Naisbitt has just published (1996) another book about megatrends, his literary expertise, since 1984, when he published the famous best seller "Megatrends". The "buzzword" conquered the academic and business sector and Naisbitt has tried to write more books on the subject. Sometimes he associated the publishing with his wife, as proved by "Megatrends for Women".

Now he published "Megatrends Asia" to honour this continent, that is emerging as the number one of the next century. During the last year and a half, Naisbitt was in Kuala Lampur, in Malaysia, and from there he visited the region feeling the incredible dynamism of several generations of business man and the wave of brain power that travel from the West back home, bringing in their luggage what is updated in terms of technologies and management concepts. What impressed him most was the almost 60 million of Chinese of the diaspora, the more important card of Asia. Among them, the women, one of them was even one of his inspiring muses.

Sixty-six years of age, he still maintains his good humour. During the interview, he underlined several times some conclusions with a loud laughter. When he is not travelling around the world, particularly in Asia, he lives in Cambridge (near Boston) and in Colorado and directs in Washington the Megatrends Limited consultant company and the Global Network that publishes "John Naisbitt´s Trends Letter".

Do you think that the triad concept - the economic division of the world by United States, the European Union, and Japan, maintains its validity? Or do you think, for example, that Japan's decline and the rise of other dynamic economies, as Singapore, are the dead bells for the triad domain?

JOHN NAISBITT - I don't see the triad as a concept. But as the obvious existence of three focus in the world, in this particular moment. Analysing each of them, it occurs to me to say that the European Union won't be one of the major players in the world economy. On the other hand, I think that the US are doing very well. I think Japan is going down on the curve and has a long way to go. And, like it was demonstrated in France, that is very difficult to negotiate. Although I don't consider Europe as one of the main players, it is obvious that it will continue to have its importance. But not so intensely as North America and even South America. Clearly, as I write in this last book, it is Asia that is behaving specially well and will play the main role. She is driving world economy in this moment. We are at the wake of a renaissance in Asia.

But, in your idea of the emergence of Asia, who will be the great protagonists, if Japan still has a long way to go and if China owes it success to the natives that came back to their country, as you say in your book?

J.N. - In my opinion, Japan has a relative importance for the emergence of Asia. The Chinese card is not China itself, but the Chinese that met in diaspora, out of China. The importance of China resides fundamentally on its entrepreneurs, that are a part of the 60 million Chinese of the diaspora, that left the continent during decades. They created a network with an incredible economic strength in all Asia and now have their eyes and money on China. I wrote in this last book that the dominant force of Asia's future will be that net. Small countries, like Singapore, as you referred previously, are very small, but they fit in that network.

So, with all those new protagonists that do not fit in that picture that triad was, aren't we walking towards a new reality?

J.N. -I think that we are walking in the direction of a new world economy, that in a long term future will constitute a sole free market.

And in that picture, how do you see the emergence of what Kenichi Ohmae refers in his book, "The End of Nation State", as the state-regions?

J.N. - The Chinese diaspora is dominating the whole Asian economy, with the exception of Japan, South Korea and India. It is also necessary to refer the Indian diaspora, of about 10 million of non residents, that generate an economy that is bigger than India. We have to think less of State-Nations. In this way, it is getting more complicated to know, for example, the GNP, of each country, because each country has a lot of economic relations with the rest of the world. Today, the statistic methods used to calculate the GNP are out of fashion. As Kenichi Ohmae puts it: the State-Nations are, in fact, in decline.

But what type of global economy is borning?

J.N. - The frontiers, in the future, won't mean a lot, because the world is dominated by interpersonal legal relations. The governments do not create added value. It's the people and the companies that do it. Being so, the present importance of the State-Nation will stop making sense.

How do you analyse the present creation of regional blocks of commerce?

J.N. - In my opinion, they are blocks in the direction of one economy. The triangles of growth are another step in the way of a total integration in the global economy. These are mechanisms that aim the total integration of the global economy.

You talked about the renaissance of Asia. What is your evaluation of the growth of the asiatism as a doctrine? Can you comment the recent book, Voice of Asia, of Mahathir Mohamad, the present prime-minister of Malaysia, and the Japanese Shintaro Ishihara that wrote with Akio Morita the book "The Japan that can say no"...

J.N. - I still haven't had the opportunity of reading that book. I am certain, however, that we will talk more and more of asiatisation. Although it is very difficult to demonstrate, I agree with the Asians when they say that the welfare state burned our chances of competitiveness. Asia does not have such a state, and will never have it. That will bring implications in economic, cultural and political terms. What happens in Asia and in the East, in general, will influence the West and the rest of the world. And this is only the beginning.

In the book, you say that Asia is passing from the model of labour intensive specialisation to another one, supported by technology and knowledge. Can you give some examples of that change?

J.N. - The inversion of the brain drain I talked about, as well as the return of highly qualified workers are creating a lot of business initiatives in the area of high technology. For example, in one of Taiwan technological parks there is more than a hundred companies, and about half is managed by Asians that came back from the US. Due to the technology they possess, the companies are getting good results.

What are the next megatrends you have in mind, after this Megatrends Asia? What will be your next book?

J.N. - At this moment, I am only going to talk about my last book about Asia. It was only published here (in US) in the start of the year. As you know, it was published first in the region that gave it the existence. So, don't talk about more books now. I'm literally exhausted after observing for a year several Asian countries. This is my first interview after 8 days in Hong Kong hospital.