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Reality Check
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46
Reality Check
2002 will be a year of continued shackeout. I see a downward spiral of stagnant growth, layoffs, bankruptcies and consolidation
There is a chance that we will see a recovery in 2004 if a new technology comes along that gives CEOs a reason to make capital investments.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
New Growth Theory and Paul Romer criticized by Peter Cohan
The biggest reason for the dot-com debacle is the widespread misapplication of a deeply flawed idea – New Growth Theory (NGT). NGT argues that people possess an almost infinite ability to combine physical resources into value-creating ideas and that these recipes are a key source of economic growth. NGT went wrong when companies bet trillions of dollars to build the very expensive first copies of these recipes on NGT’s failed premise that companies would reap tens of trillions in profits as demand soared while the cost of incremental copies converged on zero.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
Do mergers make sense?
While the average big merger does not do much for shareholders, there are big performance differences across industries.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
E-Commerce: Beyond the Hype, Real Hope
E-commerce and dot-coms are inextricably linked together. Yet, their business results are quite different. For the dot-coms, much has been lost: Six trillion dollars worth of stock market wealth has evaporated. Hundreds of companies have shut down, leaving millions of employees jobless.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
Harvard's Enron Connections
Today (June 2002) Enron announced the resignation of Herbert S. Winokur Jr., chairman and chief executive of Capricorn Holdings Inc. of Greenwich, Connecticut, from Enron’s board on which he served since 1985. Winokur’s resignation draws attention to the many ties between Harvard and Enron.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
Who's next? Guess
Since the late 1970s, periods of economic contraction have been followed by shakeouts in debt-laden industries. In the last 1970s, oil & gas and southwestern real estate bit the dust. In the early 1980s, savings & loans collapsed, in the late 1980s junk bonds cratered, and in the early 1990s commercial real estate tanked.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
AOL - the next?
In its most recent quarter, AOL wrote off $54 billion in goodwill and posted a net loss of $3.5 b. Since its peak in January 2000, AOL investors have lost $344 b, or 85%, worth of stock market value.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
BOIL THE FROG
An old consulting saw goes that if you throw a frog into a pot of boiling water, it will jump out immediately. On the other hand, if you put a frog in cool water and turn the temperature up gradually to the boiling point, the frog will stay in the pot.
Guru:
Peter Cohan
What do do Monday
The October 1987 market crash, when the Dow fell 508 points (22% of its value), occurred on a Monday -- which followed a 108 point drop the previous Friday. If July 22nd turns out to be 2002’s Black Monday, we could expect about an 1,800 point drop tomorrow. (Actually I would be glad if the October 1987 crash was the model for 2002 since in 1987 the market ended the year higher than it began).
Guru:
Peter Cohan
US Airways bankruptcy q&a
What happened at US Airways? Was it just September 11th or were things already starting to unravel before the terrorist attacks?
Guru:
Peter Cohan
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